Retirement Calculator
10,000-trial Monte Carlo simulation. Enter your numbers, hit Run, and see your probability of a successful retirement.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Monte Carlo simulation?
A Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random market scenarios based on historical return patterns. Instead of assuming one fixed rate of return, it models the uncertainty of real markets — some years are great, others are terrible. The result is a probability of success rather than a single number.
What does the success rate mean?
The success rate is the percentage of simulated scenarios where your portfolio lasted through your full life expectancy without running out of money. An 80%+ success rate is generally considered good. Below 60% suggests you may need to save more, spend less, or retire later.
What is the 4% rule?
The 4% rule suggests you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement, then adjust for inflation each year, with a high probability of not running out of money over 30 years. This calculator goes further by modeling your specific income sources, tax situation, and market volatility.
How accurate is this calculator?
It uses the same mathematical models as professional financial planning software. However, it makes simplifying assumptions — it doesn't model individual tax brackets, Roth conversion ladders, or dynamic spending adjustments. For major decisions, consult a financial advisor.
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